A decent week for me last week as I split, going 2 for 2. I nailed the Steelers and Packers but lost on the Falcons and Dolphins.
My Dolphins pick was looking great for three quarters then the Saints had to comeback spoling my upset special. Anyway here’s what I’m liking this week:
Against the Spread:
1. Chicago Bears (-13) over the Cleveland Browns
After starting 3-1 the Bears have dropped two straight and now sit at .500. They got embarrassed by the Bengals last week but who better than to take out their rage than the Browns.
If ever there was a game for Matt Forte to break out it’s on Sunday. This week the Bears did replace left guard, Frank Omiyale, with Josh Beekman who started every game last season. Cleveland’s run defense ranks 31st in the league and last week Ryan Grant got his season rolling against the Browns with his first 147 yard effort, his first time over the century mark this year. I expect Matt Forte to do the same as the Bears roll.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over the Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars started October with a rout of the Titans and now they will start November with a chance to do the same.
In the last meeting David Garrard carved up the Titans secondary and Mike Sims-Walker emerged as his favorite target. The Titans secondary has been ever worse since and is now ranked dead last in the league. They had a bye last week but the week before were shredded by Tom Brady and I’m sure David Garrard will be licking his chops.
This game also marks Vince Young’s first start of the season. I’ve been in favor of starting Vince Young for awhile now, but I’m not saying he’s going to solve all of their problems. I was just saying they need to see what they have in him. Now Vince does have a favorable matchup but until he shows his 2006 form there’s no way I’m betting on him.
3. New York Giants (PK) over the Philadelphia Eagles
The battle for NFC East supremacy takes place in Philly this weekend. The Giants come in losers of two in a row whil the Eagles rebounded against the ‘Skins after losing in Oakland.
This game is a must win for the Giants. They can’t afford to lose their third in a row and I don’t think they will. The Eagles o-line gave up 6 sacks to the Raiders two weeks ago and even let the Redskins get three against them. The Giants boast one of the best pass rushes in the game and Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and co. should be in for a big day on Sunday.
The Eagles with also be without All Pro running back Brian Westbrook, due to a concussion. While LeSean McCoy is a very capable backup, he is no Brin Westbrook. Westbrook does it all for this offense and his presence will be greatly missed on the field. On the Giants side Brandon Jacobs is finally starting to get it going averaging 5.5 yards per carry the last two weeks. This game will be a nail biter but I like the Giants to come out on top.
Upset Special
1. Minnesota Vikings (+160) over the Green Bay Packers
The media’s favorite game of the year. Brett Favre makes his long awaited return to Lambeau Field, the place where he called home for 16 years.
Enough about the pe-game hype. Let’s get to the actual game on the field.
The Packers didn’t allow a sack for the first time all season last week but they did play the Browns. Don’t think their o-line worries are suddenly gone. Jared Allen racked up 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble last time these teams played and while I wouldn’t expect a repeat, multiple sacks is a definite possibility. If Aaron Rodgers on his back all game the Packers won’t win.
The Vikings secondary did an admirable job without Antoine Winfield against Big Ben and should continue their strong play this week. Adrian Peterson didn’t have his best game last time against the Packers, so I’m sure he’ll play with some extra motivation this week.
But of course the man with all the motivation is Brett Favre. Favre still hasn’t had a game where he turns it over a lot and I don’t see it happening this week. His two turnovers last week weren’t his fault (Steve Hutchinson, Chester Taylor) and he isn’t pushing the ball down field like he usually does. He will occasionally take his chances but only in favorable situations. The emergence of third year man Sidney Rice has been huge for the Vikings and I see him having another nice game.
This game will close in the fourth quarter but I see the Vikings pulling it out.
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