NFL Week 9 Picks

I had a decent week going 2-2 again, nailing my Bears and Vikings pick while losing on my Jaguars and Giants picks.

I’m switching it up a little bit this week and will be picking 6 games total instead of my usual 4.  Let’s see if I can get back on the winning side this week:

Against the Spread

1. Atlanta Falcons (-10) over the Washington Redskins

After a promising 4-1 start the Falcons have taken a step back the past two weeks and now stand at 4-3.  There really is no shame is the recent skid though because they have lost on the road at Dallas and New Orleans, two of the leagues premier teams.  This week they get the perfect remedy for their woes, the Washington Redskins.

On Monday Night Football last week we saw the Michael Turner of last season for the first time.  He looked fast in getting to the outside and displayed his power, shouldering through multiple defenders.  He has scored a touchdown in six straight games and that streak should continue this week.  The ‘Skins rank in the bottom ten of the league in rush defense and we could see Turner run wild against them.

The Falcons gave the Saints a run for their money last week and for a while there it looked like they were going to pull the upset.  I see the Falcons getting back on track here and they easily dismantle the Redskins.

2. Green Bay Packers (-9) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Packers suffered an emotional defeat last week at the hands on Brett Favre and the Vikings but playing the Buccaneers can cure anything.

The Buccaneers may be coming off a bye but they didn’t spend the extra time practicing, instead coach Raheem Morris gave the team the entire week off.  The big change for this game is that there is a new starting quarterback for the Bucs, Josh Freeman.  The rookie is the third starter for the Buccaneers already and were only halfway through the season.  Freeman was considered extremely raw coming out of college and was expected to take at least a year before he was ready to play.  Playing an angry Packers defense won’t help that cause.

The Bucs secondary has been awful and Aaron Rodgers has been great recently.  Rodgers also gets his veteran tackles, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, back and I see him tearing up the secondary as the Packers cruise to an easy victory.

3. San Francisco 49ers (-4) over the Tennessee Titans

Vince Young had a great debut last week leading the Titans to a victory over the Jaguars although most of the credit could be given Chris Johnson, who ran for 228 yards.  But I don’t see the Titans extending their winning streak this week against the 49ers.

The 49ers has been coming close quite a lot this season but haven’t been able to pull out a victory in those games.  They have almost beaten the Colts, Vikings, and Texans but almost doesn’t get you anywhere in this league.  That being said I se them ending their skid this week.

Alex Smith has provided this offense another dimension and has developed some nice chemistry with Michael Crabtree so far.  Frank Gore was great like usual last week and MJD tore up the Titans last week for 177 yards on only 8 carries!  Playing on the road will prove to be a lot harder for Vince Young.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) over the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been an enigma this season beating the Texans one week and the next getting blown out by the Seahawks.  They have only one win since week 4 and that was against the Rams, in overtime, at home.

The Chiefs are coming off bye giving them an extra week to prepare for the Jags.  Jamaal Charles is starting at tailback in place of the suspended and ineffective Larry Johnson.  Chris Johnson absolutely tore up the Jags run defense last week and while I don’t expect Charles to put up similar numbers I think he can provide the Chiefs dormant offense with a spark.  I’m not saying the Chiefs will win but I think they cover the spread.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over the Dallas Cowboys

A key NFC East showdown for sole possession of first place takes place on Sunday Night.

Both teams are coming in hot but while the Eagles have spanked divisional opponents the Cowboys have been beating up on lesser competition (Seahawks, Chiefs).  I think the Cowboys have become very overrated over this recent three game winning streak.  The last time they made the trip to Philly was the last week of the ’08 season with the playoffs on the line and they got blown out 44-6.  While I don’t see a result of that score I do expect the Eagles winning fairly comfortably.

Upset Special

1. Arizona Cardinals (+130) over the Chicago Bears

We finally thought Arizona was back last week and then they go and lay an egg at home against the Panthers.

Both these teams enter the game at 4-3 and a win is crucial for each team.  The Bears may have crushed the Browns last week but they didn’t play as well as it looked.  Jay Cutler struggled a little and the offensive line continues to be one of the worst in the league.

Surprisingly, the Cardinals play better on the road and sport a 3-0 road record and this game happens to be in Chicago.  The Cardinals secondary can force turnovers and Jay Cutler is very prone to throwing interceptions.  I see the Cardinals squeaking one out in a close battle.