Author Archives: jsavastano

To Kick or Receive in OT? Making Sense of the NFL’s New Playoff Overtime Rules

For this year’s playoffs (and only for the playoffs), the NFL has instituted new rules concerning overtime. They’re moving away from the traditional “sudden death” (first to score wins) format. The new rules are as follows:

-If the receiving team scores a touchdown on the first drive, the game is over.

-If the receiving team scores a field goal on the first drive, the kicking team has the chance to tie with a field goal or win with a touchdown

-If the receiving team does not score on the first drive, the game is now sudden death.

I think I prefer these rules to sudden death, but to be sure I’d have to see the scenario actually play out. Odds are, it won’t. Of 256 regular season games this fall, only 19 (7%) went into an extra frame. There are only 11 games in the NFL playoffs (4 already in the books), 7% of which equals about three quarters of a game. And although there’s been an overtime playoff game in each of the last 4 years, there have only been 25 in the last 53 years.

Whether I prefer the new rules or not, the teams have to play by them. That leaves an obvious question: if you win the coin toss, what do you do? Nobody has ever been asked this question before, because in sudden death it’s a no brainer to receive.

If you receive under the new rules, there’s added pressure to score a touchdown. In years past you’d be content to get one or two first downs, get the ball in the middle of the field, and kick a game ending and game winning field goal. No more. A field goal leaves a big door open for the opponent, who have the opportunity to get a touchdown to win, and even if they don’t get that touchdown they have that easy field goal option to fall back on.

Additionally, on the first drive you have the option to punt. If you originally kicked the ball off and your opponent kicked a field goal, you don’t have the option to punt. This is actually an advantage for the original kicking team, because they now have the opportunity to cover 10 yards in 4 downs rather than three.

There are a lot of other questions that the new rules beg, as well. For example, if you’re the receiving team on the first possession and it’s 4th and 3 on the opponent’s 5 yard line, do you go for a touchdown to end the game or field goal and give it back to the other team?

If you’re the original kicking team and you have 4th and 3 on the opponent’s 5 yard line, do you try to get a touchdown to end it or kick a field goal to extend it? Remember, it’s sudden death if you kick the FG and the other team only needs a couple first downs to be in game winning territory.

I think these rules make the strategy of overtime much more interesting, and am excited to see this scenario played out. I just don’t think it will be this year.

The 2011 NFL Playoffs: Time to Put Up or Shut Up

Enough with Rex Ryan’s mind games. Enough with not knowing if this team or that team will be able to “get up” for the game. Enough with off the field stories. This is the time of year where you stop making excuses and playing real football.

These days, ESPN is becoming increasingly more like TMZ for athletes. I don’t care about Rex Ryan’s foot fetish, Antonio Cromartie’s child support bills, Brett Favre’s sexual harassment, or anything of the like.

I definitely don’t care about coaches trying to speak their minds in interviews. There’s a time and a place for honesty. Here’s a formal invitation:

Time: Sunday (or Saturday during the first two weekends of the playoffs).
Place: On the field.

Until then, go to your press conference and give the same generic interview that every player and coach gives. “They’re a great football team but we’re just gonna go out there and give 110%.” That’s all you have to say. Yes I’m talking to you, Rex Ryan. What makes you so special?

Did you really think taking a shot at Tom Brady would help your chances against the Patriots if you get by Indianapolis tonight? What happened the last time you challenged the Patriots to the media? Oh yeah! A six touchdown beat down at the hands of the Pats. In case you’re keeping score, that means if you do three touchdowns better this time around, you’ll still lose by 21.

These guys are professionals. Getting in their heads won’t make them play worse.

I guess I don’t blame Rex for trying. I just blame him for not stopping when it didn’t work the first time.

I understand that this is the NFL, and the parity is greater than it has ever been so you have to scratch and claw to try to pick up any intangible you possibly can. But you know what’s even more important than intangibles? Tangibles. The playoffs are about being physical and executing on the field. Period. The team that does that best will be hoisting the trophy when it’s all said and done.

It’s time to talk less crap to the media and more Xs and Os with the team.

Welcome to the playoffs, where any given Sunday (or Saturday) could be your last.

Joe’s Thanksgiving Picks Against the Spread

Well, what I’m NOT thankful for is my performance last time out. In week 9, after scratching and clawing for a month to get back to having as many in the W column as I had in the L, I went right back to my old ways and finished a miserable 5-8.

On the year, I’m now 39-42-1. For the last couple weeks I’ve been walking around with a bag over my head, afraid to pick games for fear of failing again, but I’m finally determined to bounce back!

Here we go, for Turkey day!

Detroit (+7) vs. New England…Do I think the Lions will win? No. But I don’t think they’re going to roll over and die in front of their home crowd on Thanksgiving. They’ve been playing tough all year, and the Patriots, despite their record, still have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (31st against the pass, 17th against the run).

New Orleans (-4) vs. Dallas…Sorry, Jason Garrett, end of the line. The Saints find themselves in a dog fight for a playoff spot while the Cowboys are just kind of, uh, finding themselves. I think Drew Brees will shed the Cowboys D like most QBs had been doing before the Wade Phillips firing.

Cincinnati (+9) at New York…While every fiber of my being tells me the Bengals have packed it in for the season, they just have too much raw talent on the offensive side of the ball. Plus, the Jets the last three weeks? They beat the Lions in OT because Yokozuma missed an extra point, beat Cleveland in OT, and beat the Texans by having to go 72 yards in 45 seconds on the final drive. The Jets will probably take this one, but nothing comes easy for them these days.

Joe’s Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Last week, I finally got back to having as many wins as losses for the first time since I was 0-0. Thanks to my 8-5 performance I got to 34-34-1 on the year, almost a .500 clip. I gained a couple games on Chris, but I’m so far in his rear-view at this point I’m unlikely to catch him by the end of the season.

This week:

Atlanta (-8.5) vs. Tampa Bay

Miami (+5) at Baltimore

Buffalo (+3) vs. Chicago

Carolina (+6.5) vs. New Orleans

New England (-4.5) at Cleveland

New York (-4.5) at Detroit

Houston (+3) vs. San Diego

Minnesota (-8) vs. Arizona

New York (-7) at Seattle

Oakland (-1) vs. Kansas City

Indianapolis (+3) at Philadelphia

Green Bay (-7.5) vs. Dallas

Cincinnati (+5) vs. Pittsburgh

Joe’s Week 8 Against the Spread

Well I have given up on trying to catch Chris for the year. He was an unbelievable 12-2 last week while I was a good (but not great) 8-6. I’ve improved every week and at this point I’m just chasing ol’ man .500. For the year, I’m 26-29-1. I’ll need 9 wins this week out of 13 games to break .500. Probably not going to happen, but maybe I can get close and build in the weeks to come. Here goes nothin’:

Denver (+1.5) vs. San Francisco (neutral field – London)

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas

Detroit (-3) vs. Washington

Kansas City (-7.5) vs. Buffalo

Miami (+1.5) at Cincinnati

Carolina (+3.5) at St. Louis

Green Bay (+6) at New York

San Diego (-3.5) vs. Tennessee

New England (-6) vs. Minnesota

Arizona (-3) vs. Tampa Bay

Oakland (-2.5) vs. Seattle

Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans

Indianapolis (-5.5) vs. Houston

Joe’s Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

[picappgallerysingle id="9907453"]Last week was a big improvement from my first two weeks, as I finished at 7-6-1. Still, I have a long road ahead of me if I’m ever going to catch up to Chris’s ridiculous win percentage. My cumulative record for the year so far is 18-23-1. This week:

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta

Chicago (-3) vs. Washington

Tennessee (-3) vs. Philadelphia

Jacksonville (+9) at Kansas City

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami

New Orleans (-13.5) vs. Cleveland

Carolina (+3) vs. San Francisco

St. Louis (+3)  at Tampa Bay

Buffalo (+13.5)  at Baltimore

Seattle (-6.5) vs. Arizona

New England (+2.5) at San Diego

Denver (-8) vs. Oakland

Green Bay (-2.5)  vs. Minnesota

New York (-3) vs. Dallas

Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

[picappgallerysingle id="9942021"]Okay, I’m a little angry now. I was 6-8 last week to bring my season numbers to 11-17, not good. I should have been 7-7 this week but caught a real bad break with Brett Favre throwing a pick-6 inside two minutes to help the Jets cover a spread. If the Vikings had turned the ball over on downs, fumbled or thrown an interception that was NOT returned for a touchdown,  the Jets would have just kneeled on the ball for a 22-20 final and a Vikings +4 cover. Oh yeah, they could have scored too, but why would Brett Favre ever do anything good?

Oh well, I need to stop making excuses and pick up a W! Chris is too strong and I need to beat him! Just once! Please!

This week’s picks (lines via Bodog.com, 7pm on Saturday):

San Diego (-8.5) at St. Louis

Houston (-5) vs. Kansas City

Baltimore (+3) at New England

Tampa Bay (+4.5) vs. New Orleans

Philadelphia (-3) vs. Atlanta

Detroit (+10) at New York

Chicago (-7) vs. Seattle

Miami (+3) at Green Bay

Cleveland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh

New York (-3.5) at Denver

San Francisco (-7) vs. Oakland

Minnesota (-1.5) vs. Dallas

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Washington

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville

Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Wow! Last week was miserable (5-9)! If you want to win your office pool or bust your bookie, probably go with the opposite of whatever I publish here this week. No excuses here, I sucked last week. Hopefully this week will be better. And here, we…GO!

DENVER (+7) at Baltimore…The Ravens defense was impressive last week, but their offense only woke up in the last 45 seconds of the game. You have to score a lot of points to cover that kind of number against Denver. Plus, the Broncos really showed me something last week going out and getting a win at Tennessee.

BUFFALO (+1) vs. Jacksonville…The Bills really looked miserable last week and the Jaguars beat the Colts. I don’t know why I’m doing this. What’s wrong with me? I guess this is my “hunch” of the week.

INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) vs. Kansas City…Are the Chiefs for real? We’re going to find our realllll quick on Sunday. I say no, and the Colts trounce them.

DETROIT (-3) vs. St. Louis…The Lions hung with the Packers last week at Lambeau, pretty impressive. The Rams beat what I’ve decided is the worst offensive team in the league last week, not as impressive. I’ll take the home team.

ATLANTA (-3) at Cleveland…Can the Browns cover back-to-back games against two (supposedly) good teams? I don’t think so. The dirty birds seemed to pick up steam at the end of last week while the Browns were running out of it. I think that will carry over.

TAMPA BAY (+6.5) at Cincinnati…I think the Bucs are overrated, but I think the Bengals are more overrated. I think Tampa steals a road win before it gets too chilly in Cinci. (Side note: How about TO last weekend? Found the fountain of youth, huh?!)

CHICAGO (-2.5) at Carolina…Nobody looked as good as those Carolina Panthers did last week. I think they’ll look pretty damn good losing this week, too.

GREEN BAY (-2.5) at Washington…I get it, it was an emotional win for Donovan McNabb last week and the team looked really unified in the locker room after. You can dress up a pig all you want, but a pig is still gonna be a pig (even if it’s a unified pig). I, for one, still think the Redskins are a bad team, even at 2-2 and atop the NFC East.

HOUSTON (-3) vs. New York…I’m gonna make this reallllll simple for you, Texans: STOP THE PASS RUSH! The Giants aren’t much of a team without it.

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) at Arizona…You suck, Cardinals. You embarrassed me last week. You’re gonna have to show me something if you ever want me to pick you again.

SAN DIEGO (-6) at Oakland…Chargers woke up last week and pounded the Cards. The Raiders are still hibernating.

TENNESSEE (+6.5) at Dallas…Tennessee is still a good team, despite last week’s slip-up. Jury is still out on Romo & co.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) vs. Philadelphia…Unless Kevin Kolb left his heart there and finds it between now and game day, he’s going to continue to play uninspired football in San Francisco. Eagles are are tortured (too soon?) without their top dog (too soon?).

MINNESOTA (+4) at New York…I don’t think Moss will be much of a help this week, but I think the Vikes will run the ball better in Favre’s return to the Meadowlands.

Good luck this week, everyone!

Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

First, allow me to introduce myself:

Joe Savastano, part-time writer, full-time football fan. Not much of a sports gambler myself but I do like a challenge, and picking games straight up can be, well, unchallenging. I’ll try my luck with from week-to-week. No pride in authorship here, feel free to leave me comments telling me how much of an idiot I am and we can have a nice little back and forth.

Alright, here goes nothin’:

TENNESSEE (-7) vs. Denver………..The Broncos have been pretty disappointing so far this season at 1-2. I do see them bouncing back and beating up on the bad teams this year because that offense has the potential to be explosive (ranked 2nd overall), but they’re not the type of team to hang with a good team in a hostile environment. That 10th ranked rush defense is going to get pounded in the trenches by the Titans O-line and Chris Johnson is going to have a big day. I like the Titans big in this one.

BALTIMORE (+2.5) at Pittsburgh……….Normally, a 3-0 team at home giving just 2.5 would be a no-brainer, right? Yeah, not so fast. The Steelers have been getting it done on the defensive end, giving up an average of just 9 points per game, but they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard themselves. Save for last week’s old timer’s day at Tampa Bay where Charlie Batch made the few fantasy owners who rolled the dice on him very happy, the Steelers have only been averaging 17 points per game. And they haven’t seen the Ravens first-ranked D yet. The simple fact of this story is that you’ve got a third-string QB going up against the league’s stingiest core. The Steelers might not score at all, so how can they cover? I’ll take the Ravens plus the points.

CINCINNATI (-3) at Cleveland…….I think the Bengals offense comes together and starts to click against a very, very bad Cleveland team. I don’t see the Browns being in this one in the second half. Bengals are an easy cover.

DETROIT (+14) at Green Bay……..I think the Lions got a good look at the Packers’ weaknesses last Monday night and will come out hungry for their first win. They’ll jump out to an early lead, be completely over-matched in the second half, and lose the game but they’ll still hang close enough to cover. I like the Lions.

CAROLINA (+14) at New Orleans……The Panthers are easily the best 0-3 team in the league. Their running game has potential, but they’re always having to throw the ball because they’re always playing from behind. The longer they can keep Jimmy Clausen handing off, the better off they’ll be. The Saints are the most overrated team in the league, and that’ll start to show today when they let the Panthers hang around wayyyy too long. Take the Panthers plus the points.

ATLANTA (-7) vs. San Francisco……I think the biggest surprise of this year was the seemingly upstart 49ers starting 0-3. It’s going to be even more surprising when they start 0-4. I’m no longer shocked that they’re a bad team, I just accept it. Get on board with me, or you’re gonna get hurt. The Dirty Birds are too strong, too physical, too tough and too talented for the Niners to hang. I love The Falcons here.

SEATTLE (-2) at St. Louis……Nobody knows how the Seahawks are 2-1, including me. Their offense is ranked 29th overall and their defense 25th. Still, I have to give them credit for beating San Diego at home last week in an impressive 27-20 victory. If they’re going to win a road game all year (and I don’t see them being bad enough to go 0-8 on the road), it’ll be against these hapless Rams. Seattle is the pick.

BUFFALO (+6.5) vs. New York……The Bills have to be happy with how their offense played last week against the Patriots, and their defense is bound to have a good day. What better time to have a good day then against Mark Sanchez and that 26th ranked passing offense? Buffalo proved last week that they can turn turnovers into points, and if Sanchez throws a couple picks early, it could be an “upsetting” day for The Jets.

INDIANAPOLIS (-8) at Jacksonville……Road chalk over a touchdown is always risky, but Peyton Manning is really starting to roll after that Week 1 hiccup. The Jaguars have proved that they just can’t stop the ball, letting Mike Vick go bizerk last weekend on their home field. And the Jags certainly can’t play from behind with that 28th ranked passing offense. Peyton might be resting in the 4th quarter of this one.

HOUSTON (-2.5) at Oakland…Gotta give the Raiders credit for hanging with the Cards last weekend on the road. But not too much credit. Houston is ready to take out their frustration from last week’s home embarrassment at the hands of the Cowboys, and this will probably be their easiest road game of the year. Raiders can’t hang. I like Houston. Big.

ARIZONA (+9) at San Diego…….I’m really not going to pick a 1-2 team who lost to the Seahawks last week to beat a 2-1 team by double digits. Sorry. Phil Rivers will continue to look like a frustrated, dumb baby out there. Chargers won’t get pounded, but they’re not going to run away with this one either. I like the Cards plus the points.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs. Washington……Donovan McNabb’s homecoming won’t be a pleasant one. He may get booed, he may get cheered, he will get sacked. Washington cannot move the ball, cannot defend, and Mike Vick is going to continue to make his case for MVP of the league. Sorry Donovan, out with the old, in with the explosive. Philly blows ‘em out.

NEW YORK (-3.5) vs. Chicago…The Giants don’t suck, but they’re not very good either. I really can’t go with the Bears, though. I don’t even think they deserve to be 3-0, so how can I predict them to go 4-0 with a decided road victory? This one’s more instinct than anything, but I gotta go with the G-Men.

MIAMI (-1) VS. New England…..The Patriots proved last weekend that they can hang with anyone because they can score points, but they can’t stop anyone either. Whenever they play a good defense (like when the Jets beat them two weeks ago), they’re screwed. And Miami has a good defense.

That’s it for this week. Hope you guys enjoyed the post. Happy picking!