Category Archives: Opinion
Predicting the 2011 Starting QBs
The QB carousel. It keeps going and going. It never stops.
Looking forward to next year (you know, if there even is a next year), at least 11 teams have serious questions at the most important position on the field, QB.
Since were only a few weeks away from the 2011 NFL Draft I though now would be a great time to predict who will be under center come September for QB needy teams.
Now remember, these are all guesses. I’ll probably hit a few and be completely wrong on some others. Regardless, it will be fun to look back at this in September to see how good (probably bad) I did.
Arizona Cardinals
Likely 2011 Starter: Donovan McNabb
McNabb lives in Arizona in the offseason and Larry Fitzgerald does not want to wait for a rookie QB to develop.
Buffalo Bills
Likely 2011 Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick
They will draft a QB and have him sit and learn behind Fitzpatrick until he’s ready. I have them taking Blaine Gabbert in my latest Mock Draft.
Carolina Panthers
Likely 2011 Starter: Cam Newton
All signs point to them selecting Newton with the first overall pick. They won’t pay him to sit on the bench.
Cincinnati Bengals
Likely 2011 Starter: Ryan Mallet
The Bengals have a history of taking chances on players with character issues. Mallet should fit right in.
Denver Broncos
Likely 2011 Starter: Kyle Orton
It appears that John Elway is not a Tim Tebow supporter. That should open the door for Orton to reclaim the job.
Miami Dolphins
Likely 2011 Starter: Chad Henne
Odds are they will probably draft a QB in the second round. And odds are they will probably be a bust.
Minnesota Vikings
Likely 2011 Starter: Carson Palmer
They’re in a win now mode. Plus, they get to replace one old interception throwing quarterback with another old, interception throwing quarterback.
San Francisco 49ers
Likely 2011 Starter: Kevin Kolb
I suspect John Harbaugh will want a building block at QB. My sleeper pick is Josh Johnson, who he coached in college.
Seattle Seahawks
Likely 2011 Starter: Jake Locker
Peter Carroll was the only head coach at his Pro Day.
Tennessee Titans
Likely 2011 Starter: Matt Hasselbeck
They will look to draft a quarterback and Hasselbeck would provide a nice bridge.
Washington Redskins
Likely 2011 Starter: Alex Smith
Mike Shanahan loves project QBs. Smith has the potential, maybe Shanahan can get the best out of him.
What’s Better? Talking About Sports or Watching Sports?
The other day, Jeff Pearlman of Sports Illustrated penned a column over at the Wall Street Journal arguing that in today’s world talking about sports has surpassed watching sports.
Pearlman found himself riveted by the media coverage of the Tennessee Titan’s search for a head coach despite the facts that he can’t name more than 3 players on the Titans and hasn’t watched an entire Titans game in over a decade. Pearlman continued:
Yet for some reason, when Josh Elliott, an ESPN anchor, mused, I listened, fascinated by the whole ordeal. I refused to leave the exercise machine until I knew every detail—when was Mr. Munchak scheduled to have an appointment? Who else had been called? What’s the time frame? And that’s when the truth hit me.
Watching sports is mostly boring. Talking and speculating about sports is riveting.
He then talked about all the constant frenzy of Carmelo Anthony trade-talk chatter. Where will he go? New York? L.A.? How about New Jersey? How much will he help his new team?
When he finally gets traded, Pearlman said we will cover his first game with “tremendous fanfare” and then move on to a new subject right after and it’s hard to disagree with him.
The truth is, offseasons are 8,000 times as engrossing as seasons. Transaction listings trump box scores. Status updates kill service points. Ken Griffey Jr.’s return to Seattle? Riveting! Ken Griffey Jr., overweight and 40, regularly popping up to shortstop in his return to Seattle? Not so great.
Every NFL fan debates Pro Bowl worthiness, but maybe one in 100 watches the actual event. The Major League All-Star Game is so insufferably dull that baseball actually had to make it count for something (the winning league receives home-field advantage for the World Series). Yet we’ll argue the worthiness of Ryan Howard vs. Albert Pujols until the opening pitch.
Today, Jason Gay offered a rebuttal to Pearlman’s column arguing that the action is always better than the chatter.
Here’s the thing: In the end, the action always wins. Yes, there’s lots of drudgery—somnambulant midseason contests, dopey college bowls, hopeless franchises playing out the string. But even a pointless game offers the opportunity for wonder—witness the genuine excitement over Blake Griffin, a thrilling, highlight-reel rookie marooned on the 20-35 L.A. Clippers. It doesn’t matter if it’s Mr. Griffin thundering for a dunk or Mr. Rooney flipping upside down—that sliver of chance to witness on-field greatness is more pleasurable than any off-field discussion could ever be. It may sound hopelessly corny, but it’s moments, not words, that fundamentally drive our love of sports. Without them, there is nothing to talk about at all.
Both writers bring up some excellent points and I see both side of the argument.
Football wise, I’m siding with Gay. I love all the talk about whose the best team, who is overrated/underrated, and who will sign where, but there’s nothing quite like Sunday football. I’m sit on my couch from 1:00 to 7:30 every Sunday from September through January. Right now, I can’t wait for it to be September already and the season ended less than two weeks ago.
Now for other sports, I would agree with Pearlman. I don’t know about you, but the last time I watched a 9 inning baseball game Barry Bonds was bombing 500 foot home runs and Roger Clemens was sticking needles in his but. Yet, I still like to talk about the merits of Derek Jeter winning gold gloves and how where the Phillies rotation ranks all-time.
So now, I I’ll leave this up to you, the people. What do you like more? Watching the game or talking about the game afterward?
Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s get a lively debate going here.
2011 AFC Championship Game Preview: Jets at Steelers
The time is here. Gameday. 60 minutes separate the Jets and the Super Bowl. They came oh so close last year and now one year later, they return. The team has a different look from last year. No Thomas Jones, Kerry Rhodes, Alan Faneca, or Jay Feely, but they have plenty of new faces. Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor will look to make their mark and prove that Mike Tannenbaum and the Jets made the right decisions. Is this the Jets year? Will they overcome the demons that have haunted them since their last Super Bowl appearance in 1969? We will find out tonight in Pittsburgh.
Heading up to gametime, here are some of my final thoughts on the matchup:
Protect the Football- Their Week 15 win over the Steelers and their win last week against the Patriots have one thing in common: the Jets didn’t turn the ball over. Playing mistake free football isn’t easy, but it is imperative if the Jets want to play for the Lombardi trophy. A key turnover can swing the momentum of game. Just look at Ray Rice’s fumble last week or David Harris’ interception early on that set the tone for the Jets.
Don’t Rely on Ground and Pound- The Jets ran for over 100 yards in Week 15, but to expect them to do that again would be asking for a lot. This Pittsburgh run defense allows just over 60 yards per game, one of the stingiest in history. Running the ball will be key to take some pressure off Mark Sanchez, but they won’t win running the ball. All that talk about controlling the time of possession is hog wash. That’s all I heard leading up to the game last week against the Patriots, and guess what, the Jets lost the T.O.P. battle 34:56 to 25:04 and still won. Time of possession means nothing, it’s all about what you do when you have the ball.
On the Mark- Last week I said Mark Sanchez needed to step up and “make plays, no excuses.” Well after clutch passes to Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards and others, you can confidently say Mark Sanchez outplayed Tom Brady. He needs to play that way once again. As inconsistent as he has been in his young career, he has shown a tendency to show up in big spots. Today is the biggest spot of them all.
The Return of Troy- In the Jets 22-17 victory over the Steelers, a certain player wasn’t in action and his name is Troy Polamalu. If you don’t think that was a big deal, you need to read this article. The differences are astounding. However, he definitely isn’t 100 percent healthy and you could see that last week. Regardless, the Jets need to account for his presence on every play. He is the ultimate game changer on defense.
Revis Island?- Last week, the Jets used a different approach on defense. Instead of having Darrelle Revis shadow one receiver the whole game, they moved him around on different receivers. From Deion Brach to Wes Welker to even Danny Woodhead, Revis was everywhere. It will be interesting to see how the Jets use him this week. When they faced off in Week 15, he shadowed Hines Ward and essentially cancelled him out. Will they do that again? Will he cover Mike Wallace? Or a combination? A note about Wallace. The Ravens limited to only 20 yards on 3 catches, maybe they can mimic what they did.
What about Big Ben?- The Steelers QB is a terror for any defense to gameplan against. Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine has done a masterful job the past two weeks devising gameplans to confuse and stymie two of the game’s best , Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The task doesn’t get any easier this week with Roethlisberger. He is known for his ability to extend plays and escape the blitz. Do the Jets gamble and send the house at him or play a mix of coverages and hope their defensive line can generate pressure.
What the Folk?- Being completely honest, Nick Folk scares the crap about me and I’m sure most Jets fan would agree with me. Missing a 30 yarder last week didn’t help the least. Plus, add in the fact that kickers are making only 71.8 percent of kicks at Heinz field this year (79.7 percent league wide) and there have only been 2 field goals over 5o yards made at Heinz Field ever. The Jets need to seriously consider going for it on fourth down over opting for a longer field goal attempt. They also need to convert when they’re in the red zone. The were 4-5 (4 td’s) last week and that was a key reason in why they won.
Don’t forget about Heath- Lost in the shuffle this week is that Troy Polamalu wasn’t the only player to miss the Week 15 clash between the teams. Also missing was tight end Heath Miller, who was out with a concussion. Matt Spaeth filled in for Miller and dropped two passes in the end zone. Miller has always been a great safety valve for Roethlisberger and the Jets have struggled defending the tight end this season. With most of the attention on Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, the Jets can’t forget about Miller.
The time is now. Last year it was great just to see the Jets in the AFC Championship Game. This year, it’s different. The Steelers are beatable and the Jets have the team to do it. All that’s left is to go out there and execute.
Chad Henne Replaced with Chad Pennington
As I predicted on Monday, the Miami Dolphins replaced starter Chad Henne with Chad Pennington. It was a mildly surprising move for the 4-4 Dolphins and definitely a setback for Henne, whose status as the franchise quarterback in now up in the air.
Looking at his numbers, it would appear as if Henne is playing decently. A 78.2 QB rating and a 63.5% completion percentage, but an ugly 8:10 TD/INT ratio.
After not throwing a interception in the first two games, Henne has thrown 10 in the six games since, the second most in the league in that time span. Also that 63.5% completion percentage looks impressive, but after looking deeper at the numbers you see why it’s that high.
Henne has only thrown the ball over 20 yards 14 times this season, which ranks 32nd in the league. Of those 14 attempts, he has only completed 4 passes for a 29% completion percentage. Another area where Henne has struggled is the red zone.
They have scored touchdowns 47 percent of the time, 10th in the 16-team AFC. Those eight touchdowns are the fewest in the conference.
Much of the reason of their red zone woes can be attributed to Henne’s inability to throw the ball in the end zone. He has completed 3 of 15 throws into the end zone for 11 yards and one interception for a 51.4 passer rating. Most importantly, he has failed to connect with receiver Brandon Marshall, misfiring on all six of his attempts to Marshall in the end zone. The Dolphins have scored only 11 touchdowns overall, a total that is only higher than the Carolina Panthers, wh0 have been playing musical chairs at quarterback.
And now the Dolphins will shift back to Pennington, the man that lead them to the AFC East title in 2008 and you can’t really blame them. Henne was playing over Pennington because he has superior arm strength but he’s clearly struggling with the deep ball so if your going to run a dink and dunk offense, then why not play the most accurate passer in NFL history.
Superbowl or BUST for Cowboys and Vikings
Sixteen weeks of football divided in half is eight. Week 8 of the 2010 NFL season has come and gone. So that must mean we’re halfway through the season. Of course we are, that’s sound logic. Unfortunately, no amount of deep thought and reason can accurately predict the fate of a team in the NFL these days. As an evolved species, humans have this tendency to apply such tools when creating assumptions about what will go down on the gridiron.
Before the season began, NFL pundits and experts were drooling over the Dallas Cowboys, who on paper looked solid. Much was made of the possibility of a team hosting the Super Bowl. Two months later, the Cowboys are foundering at 1-6, having just lost their starting QB as well as any remaining hope of turning their season around. Backup QB Jon Kitna now holds the reins, and he must do so with the backing of a lame duck coach.
The other preseason NFC darling, the Minnesota Vikings, haven’t fared much better at the midway point of the season. Brett Favre looks as if he’s aged considerably, even since last year. The shot of him being carted off the field in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots with a chin laceration was quite telling. Although he looked okay during the post-game press conference, you have to wonder if his tank is finally getting down to empty. The absence of WR Sidney Rice has been significant, but even so, this is nowhere near the team that we all saw in 2009. Of course you can’t blame it all on the offense. The Vikings defense, even with the return of talented inner LB E.J. Henderson, has largely been a disappointment, particularly in the forced turnover department.
Looking forward, Minnesota’s second half looks a little less bleak than that of the Cowboys, but that isn’t saying too much. Maybe if either of them were in the NFC West, there’d be reason to hope. Alas, this is not the case and neither the NFC East or North has much room for a 1-6 and 2-5 team. The lesson here, of course, is that its not wise to make Super Bowl predictions in August. You just can’t expect every team to carry over their success from one year to the next. Unless you have Peyton Manning, of course.
NFL Week 5: Who Stepped Up
After a crazy slate of Week 5 action, I saw a number of teams and players who made statements. It seems this season is going to be unpredictable all the way down the stretch and everybody has an opportunity to win every week. The best performances of the week, starting with my team, the Washington Redskins:
Redskins Defense – Yes, we gave up over 400 yards to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but we also held them to just 13 points in a huge overtime victory. The defense, led by LaRon Landry’s 13 tackles and interception, was flying around all day and making big hits throughout. They were able to keep Green Bay off the scoreboard on a crucial goal line stand and kept us in the game until the offense was able to start putting points on the board. The ‘Skins are leading the NFC East after 5 weeks and we’re going to be tough to beat because of our physical nature, regardless of the matchup.
New York Giants Defense – Anytime a defense can hold the league’s leading rusher (Texans Arian Foster) to just 25 yards, you can tell they’re doing a lot of things right. And with Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and company applying pressure to the quarterback like we’re all used to seeing, the Giants showed that all the perceived problems were way overblown. The 34-10 win over a quality Houston Texans squad have the Giants right there atop the NFC East with the Redskins.
Oakland Raiders Special Teams – The Raiders were able to beat the Chargers for the first time since 2003 in large part to two blocked punts which resulted in a touchdown and a safety on San Diego’s first two drives of the game. Coaches have been preaching special teams forever, and its already been a theme this year having been the deciding factor in a lot of games. With the Raiders getting this kind of points from their special teams, it gave them a huge advantage that the Chargers just couldn’t overcome.
Detroit Lions Quarterback Shaun Hill – Still starting in relief of the injured Matt Stafford, Hill led the Lions to a 44-6 demolition of the St. Louis Rams, Detroit’s first victory this year. He threw for 227 yards and 3 scores and looks like a very capable QB in the league. He was able to hit three different targets for scores and in the process showed that the Lions are a team that can no longer be taken lightly.
Arizona Cardinals Quarterback Max Hall – Regardless of the numbers, anytime an undrafted free-agent rookie quarterback can come in and lead his team to a win over the defending Super Bowl Champions, a statement was made. Hall threw for only 168 yards and had a pick, but he was able to manage the game and looked to be improving as the game went on. Arizona’s defense helped Hall by turning Saints turnovers into points and they were able to come away with an impressive 30-20 victory. It was a win the Cardinals needed badly after last week’s failure against the Chargers.
Inez Sainz Controversy Setting Back Female Sports Journalists
The story that has taken the sports media by a storm this week is the one surrounding TV Azteca’s reporter Ines Sainz. In case you have been hiding under a rock here is the cliff notes version. Sainz was at the Jets facility to interview Mark Sanchez on Saturday. During practice Jets coaches were apparently throwing footballs near here during a passing drill to get close to her. Then in the locker room she was subject to some “catcalls” by the players.
The Association for Women in Sports Media filed a complaint on her behalf and the NFL has launched an investigation. Jets owner Woody Johnson immediately called and apologized to Sainz, who reportedly accepted the apology. Head coach Rex Ryan has said that the team is open to sensitivity training.
So you may ask, who is this Inez Sainz anyway?
“Inez Sainz is best known because of her sexy looks. Inez Sainz is hot, talented and has a great smile.” Those quotes are taken directly from her personal website. Notice how she is best know because of her looks, not her reporting skills and that hot comes before talented. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t sound like a journalist to me yet the NFL accredited her anyway.
This is the same journalist who at the 2009 Super Bowl Media Day was measuring players biceps and at this past year’s was carried off the field on the shoulders of two Colts offensive lineman.
She has since said that she wasn’t offended by the comments made by the Jets as she made her way on the morning talk show carousel. She is enjoying the attention she has received and becoming bigger than the real story, a big no-no for journalists. She is a sideshow that is there for entertainment purposes only.
In doing this, she is setting a terrible example for all aspiring female sports journalists and is giving a bad name to all current female sports journalists. Women have fought a hard fight to gain equality in sports, a field dominated by men. They have made so much progress recently, especially since the Lisa Olsen sexual harassment ordeal back in 1990. More and more women have been breaking into sports journalism and not just because of their looks. Women like Jackie MacMullen, Chrstine Brennan, Linda Cohn and many others have been pioneers in the cause. And now, this whole Ines Sainz controversy is setting women back. Women shouldn’t have to subject themselves to being eye candy for men in order to excel in the male driven sports world.
She is undermining what countless women sports journalists are doing every day and thus widening the gap between men and women in the sports world making life harder for women journalists everywhere.
Some Quick NFL Gambling Tips
The NFL regular season begins tomorrow and with it sports betting will once again reach an annual peak of American participation. With the advent of online sports gambling, companies based outside the United States have garnered multibillion dollar profits from NFL bets originating from the US. The American consumer’s desire to wager on the NFL is growing and with every new young internet savvy fan the NFL draws, there’s one more potential online gambler.
So for everyone out there thinking about dropping some online cash tomorrow let me give you some friendly reminders.
1. Don’t bet against the champs. The Super Bowl Champions have yet to lose their opening Thursday night game since the NFL instituted the Thursday night kickoff game. The combination of the champions receiving their rings and looking to prove they’re still the best on national television means you should under no circumstances take the Vikings over the Saints tomorrow.
(Saints -5.5)
2. Take the money line early. In the early weeks of the NFL season the variability between which teams everyone thinks will win and which teams actually will win is at its highest. Teams that look good in the pre-season don’t always perform in the regular season. A lot of hype is built up around certain teams and there are always some surprise teams that no one is expecting. What this means for the gambler is a ton of value can be found in the money lines if you can pick out who’s over or under hyped.
(Detroit +240)
3. Bet the team props. Here is another chance to find some clear value between a team’s public hype and their honest to god quality. If you feel a team is being undervalued at the beginning of the season take the over on the proposition.
(Chicago under 8.) (KC over 5 ½)
4. Take teams that draft D-line. The one position that translates very easily from college to professional levels is the defensive line so if you’re looking for a team to immediately improve based on their draft look no further then the teams that took defensive ends or defensive tackles early in the draft because these players will have immediate impacts on their team.
(Ravens)(Lions)(Giants)(Buccaneers)
5. Only gamble for the joy of the game. Online gambling is a great way to lose a ton of money and if you’re in it to make money then you’re more than likely in it for the wrong reasons. If you’re gambling to turn a humdrum game between the buccaneers and the browns into a stomach twisting thriller then you’re in it for the right reasons, and just maybe you’ll make some cash along the way…
My Take on Brett Favre
Brett Favre. His name just oozes greatness.
He’s got every major quarterback record (even the bad ones) and has accomplished everything a quarterback dreams of accomplishing in his career. He has a Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP honors to start. He has also been named the AP Most Valuable Player three times, all in consecutive years (1995-1997). He has been voted to the Pro Bowl eleven times in his career. The list goes on and on and there is no doubt that he has played at a high level throughout his career, but what amazes me is that how long he has played at such a high level.
He was named to the all-decade team…last decade and yes that means the 90’s. Since the start of the 2000-2001 season, he has put up some gaudy numbers with 38,435 passing yards and 262 touchdowns. To put this in perspective look at Brad Johnson. He played from 1994 until 2008 and was an above average starter for a number of years. He won a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2003 in just his second year with the team. His career stats include 29,054 passing yards and 161 touchdowns. This means Favre had almost 10,000 more yards and 100 more touchdowns in the past decade than Johnson had in his entire career.
He has created quite a legacy for himself, and football is just one side of it. Unfortunately now when I hear the name Brett Favre, I cringe a little bit.
The guy has gotten so much unnecessary publicity over his now famous “to retire or to not retire” escapade. His popularity has understandably taken a little bit of hit because of his “diva” like behavior, but honestly it’s not him that bothers me and I don’t really fault him for his actions.
It’s the media, specifically ESPN, that has made this into much more of a spectacle than it needs to be. Brett has earned his stripes and earned the right to do whatever he wants at this point in his career. It’s his life and he deserves to do what he wants with it.
Yes I understand that he sometimes fuels his own fire with some of his comments, but he has and always will be the type of guy that is going to give it to you straight. If you have the media camping out on his front door step recording his every move during his decision-making process then there is of course going to be indecisiveness reported because that’s what makes a tough decision tough.
I think Brett, like many other NFL players, enjoys the limelight, but in this case I think it’s media that continues to shine the limelight on him without letting up.
Nate Kaeding Still Rattled
Peter King visited Chargers camp and spent some time chatting with kicker Nate Kaeding.
Kaeding –in case you forgot– imploded against the Jets in the playoffs last season missing all three of his field goal attempts (36, 57, and 40).
That wasn’t the first time he’s choked in the playoffs. Back in 2004, he missed a 40 yard attempt in overtime against the Jets and in 2007 he missed kicks from 45 and 48 yards out in a loss to the Patriots.
His postseason kicking percentage stands at 53.3% (8-15), while hi regular season percentage is 87.2% (150-172).
So to try and help clear his head Kaeding has been meeting with a sports psychologist this offseason (about six times).
“Keep the game in perspective,” Kaeding said the message was. “Don’t make it bigger than it is. There’s going to be peaks and valleys, and just accept them.”
I asked Kaeding: Will there be a hangover this year?
I don’t know,” he said. “I can’t kick a playoff field goal in August, or October.”A kicker has to be like a cornerback. Give up a long completion, corners are told, and you’ve just got to move on blindly to the next snap. Same with kickers, who can’t carry one miss into the next kick. The problem against the Jets, Kaeding said, was carrying over the first miss, and you can tell, standing here on the field of the Chargers’ practice facility, that it still bugs him.“Mentally, I wasn’t able to flush that first kick,” he said. “As a kicker, you know you’re going to miss. What disappoints me is not being able to put that one behind me.” The second one was a long prayer. No harm, no foul. But the third one, in a tight game, was inexcusable.
“I was completely blindsided by that,” he said. “Shame on me for ever thinking I’ve got this game figured out. I just didn’t approach that kick right.”
And the fact that Kaeding can’t make it right today or tomorrow is probably the worst part. It’s going to eat at him until January, and there won’t be a player in the NFL with more pressure on him entering the playoffs (if the Chargers make it) than Kaeding.
“Quite honestly, it still bugs the crap out of me,” he said.
That’s not the attitude I want to see from my kicker. How do you say you “don’t know” if there will be a hangover this year. Even if you don’t believe it, you have to say that it’s behind you and you can’t wait to go out there and nail that kick.
What are his teammates suppose to think about him after he said that? How are they going to trust him in a close game?
If I’m A.J. Smith (Chargers G.M.) I’d cut him right now. I actually would have cut him earlier in the offseason, but you almost have to now.
The Chargers have been trying to to get over the playoff hump for years now and having a kicker with the yips is going to hurt you. He’s already cost them three games in the playoffs. I don’t care how good he has been in the regular season. He’s a kicker, he’s replaceable.
It would also do good for Kaeding, who could finally put all of this behind him as he gets a fresh start with a new team in a new city.
Until the divorce between the Chargers and Kaeding happens (irreconcilable differences), his playoff past will always haunt him and doom the Chargers.
