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NFL Week 7: Bet of the Week
Last week wasn’t my best as I only went 2 for 4 with my picks but I did get my upset special, the Chiefs, right agin improving my record to 5-1 on the season. Let’s see if i an get back on track this week:
Against the Spread
1. Atlanta (+4) over the Dallas Cowboys
The Falcons are as hot as any team in the league right now. They are coming off a blowout win at San Francisco and a good win over the Bears. Their offense is clicking right now, especially the passing game.
The Cowboys are coming off a bye but I don’t their coaching can take advantage. Plus they are also barely beat the Chiefs the last time they played. The Falcons defense won’t miss those tackles that the Chiefs missed on Miles Austin.
This game has the makings of a shootout and will likely come down h the wire. In the end I see the Falcons offense proving too powerful for the Cowboys to handle.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over the Minnesota Vikings
The game of the week pits the undefeated Vikings against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
The Steelers have ripped off three straight wins after starting out 1-2. They finally have a dependable backfield in Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker. Also Ben Roethlisberger is playing the best football of his career.
The Vikings are 6-0, but have had more than their fair share of good fortune and are due for a letdown. Without top cornerback, Antoine Winfield, I expect Ben Roethlisberger to have a field day against a secondary that was lit up for over 350 yards by Joe Flacco last week.
This game will also the first outdoor game for Brett since week one, where he struggled. I see the Steelers winning this one by a touchdown.
3. Green Bay Packers (-9) over the Cleveland Browns
The Packers looked very good last week, even it was against the Lions. Any time you shut out a divisional opponent it is impressive.
The Browns on the other hand, still have not scored over 20 points this season. Derek Anderson has shown nothing and while it’s not all his fault he simply is not playing good. Also many Browns have come down with the flu and they will be without a few players this Sunday. They also lost middle linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson, the league leader in tackles last season, for the year.
The Packers should finally be able to get Greg Jennings going this week. The Browns only have one player that has more than one sack, which should allow Aaron Rodgers time to find Jennings deep a few times.
Upset Special
1. Miami Dolphins (+235) over the New Orleans Saints
This may seem crazy when you first look at it but after breaking it down it makes sense.
The Saints aren’t going to win every game and are due for a let down.
The Dolphins meanwhile, are coming off a bye and have had a extra week to prepare for the Saints high octane attack and they also had another week to add more playes and gimmicks to the Wildcat. The Saints have not seen the Wildcat before and could struggle to stop it.
The Dolphins are on a two game winning streak and if they beat the Saints they will get back to .500. If the Wildcat can keep the Saints offense off the field and the Dolphins will be able to control the clock. They did this against to perfection against the Colts but lost the game becasue they couldn’t come back in the final minutes. But now instead of Chad “noodle arm” Pennington at quarterback they have Chad Henne, who has looked great in his first two career starts. It also doesn’t hurt that the Dolphins are playing at home.
NFL Bet of the Week: Week 6
I was 4 for 4 with about 10 seconds left in the Monday Night game. Then Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins crushed my bid to go a perfect 4-0, but I’ll settle for 3-1. Let’s see if I can make up for it this week.
Against the Spread
1. Houston Texans (+5.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals
The Texans have been as inconsistent as you can get this season. One week they look like the playoff sleeper many expert pegged them as and the next week they look like a team in disarray.
Though, they have improved their dreadful run defense the past two weeks holding their opponents to 89 yards combined. They do face a tough test this week in league leader Cedric Benson (never thought I’d ever say that).
The Bengals are flying high right now but this game just screams let down to me. They have gotten extremely lucky winning their last three games all by 3 points and all in the closing seconds. That luck comes to an end this week.
2. New York Giants (+3) over the New Orleans Saints
This game is a battle for NFC supremacy and could decide home field advantage in the playoffs.
Drew Brees has been rather quiet the past two weeks after getting off to a scorching start the first two weeks of the season. The Giants have been great against the pass this season and I think they can keep Brees in check for another week.
The Saints have been living off takeaways this season leading the league despite only playing four games. Eli Manning will be the toughest quarterback they have faced though and has only turned the ball over twice this season. He’s not going to give them 14 points like Mark Sanchez did with his mistakes a couple of weeks ago.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (-14) over the Oakland Raiders
This game has mis match written all over as evidenced by the 14 point spread and it should probably be even more.
The Raiders can’t do anything offensively, whether it through the air or on the ground. After last week’s embarrassment against the Giants, linebacker Antonio pierce said the game felt like a scrimmage. Talk about a slap in the face.
The Raiders a playing like a JV team right now and until they prove otherwise you have to bet against them.
The Eagles have a surplus of weapons that can exploit the Raiders defensively. They crushed the Bucs last week and their leading receiver, DeSean Jackson, had only one catch. This game will be over in a hurry.
2009 Record: 10-5
Upset Special
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+190) over the Washington Redskins
I like a lot of underdogs this week but I don’t really consider the Giants over the Saints or the Ravens over the Vikings an upset.
That being said I really like the Chiefs chances this week. They were so close against the Cowboys last week and probably should have won that game.
Don’t be fooled by the ‘Skins’s 2-3 record. They have played a win less team every week this season.
The Cowboys broke a lot of big play last week but the Redskins don’t the offensive weapons the Cowboys do. I can’t remember the last time Clinton Portis broke a 40 yard run. Just looked it up and you have to go all the way back to 2005. Ouch.
The Redskins only offensive weapon, Santana Moss, will not be able to go deep as much this game due to the ‘Skins’s o-line woes. They are missing left tackle Chris Samuels and are starting two backup on the right side. That will limit the ‘Skins to more three step drops and quick throws.
Everyone is calling for Jim Zorn’s head right now and its starting to distract the players. They went to Daniel Synder and asked him to give Zorn a vote of confidence the other day but as of now he has made no such comment. He wants to fire Zorn and a loss against the Chiefs will likely be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
2009 Record: 4-1
NFL Bet of the Week: Week 5
Wasn’t the best week for me last week as I split going 2-2. It also marked the first time I’d lost my upset special, the Ravens, who probably should have won that game if not for the refs, but that’s a different story.
I also noticed that in odd weeks of the season I’ve gone 4-0 and in even weeks I’ve gone 2-2. Well, it’s an odd week and I’m feeling good about it.
Against the Spread
1. New York Jets (-2) over the Miami Dolphins
The Jets are coming off their first loss of the season and will be out for a vengeance on Monday Night against the ‘Phins. Sanchez gets his chance to shine in prime time and his new go to guy, Braylon Edwards, thrives in the spotlight.
Chad Henne was impressive in his first start, but that was against the Bills. The Jets’s defense is a lot better than the Bill’s and I’m sure rex Ryan has been scheming to confuse to young quarterback. Don;t forget that season when Rex Ryan was the Ravens defensive coordinator, the Ravens completely bottled up the Dolphin’s Wildcat in the playoffs.
2. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over the Tennessee Titans
One would have expected this to be for a battle for the early season lead the AFC South but it is far from it. The Colts are doing their part standing at 4-0, but the Titans come in limping at 0-4 and a disastrous game against the Jaguars.
Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his career right now and gets the depleted Titans secondary this week, which was abused by David Garrard last week. While breaking in new receivers, Peyton has shown why he is considered of the NFL’s best. This may be the last straw for Keryy Collins as many fans are clamoring for Vince Young to get his shot.
3. Atlanta Falcons (-3) over the San Francisco 49ers
A possible playoff preview? Perhaps, but it’s too early to tell. The 49ers had it easy against the Rams last week but the Falcons are no pushover.
The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for the 49ers and I forecast a letdown the 49ers here. Expect the Falcons to get Michael Turner involved early and often. Glen Coffee is no Frank Gore so the Falcons can focus on shutting down the emerging Vernon Davis.
2009 Record: 8-4
Upset Special
1. Cleveland Browns (+220) over the Buffalo Bills
I’m going out a limb with this pick, but that’s also what I said when I predicted the Lions to beat the ‘Skins.
The Browns looked pretty good against the Bengals last week despite the overtime loss. Derek Anderson was effective at quarterback and proved why Eric Mangini chose him over Brady Quinn.
The Bills have been terrible against the run the last two games giving up 472 yards and expect the emerging Jerome Harrison to take full advantage. Couple that with the play of rookie Mohammad Massaquoi and the Browns have a respectable offense now.
The Bills look like a completely different team now than the one that nearly beat the Pats in week one. Trent Edwards has struggled, T.O. has been on existent, and the defense has been nowhere to be found. A loss here would make Dick Jauron’s seat a lot hotter.
2009 Record: 3-1
Bet of the Week: Week 4
Last week was all smiles for me as I went a perfect 4 for 4, making it the second week i had accomplished that feat. Let’s see if I can keep the streak going through week 4.
Week 4
1. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) over the Cleveland Browns
This line looks too good to be true but I’m still taking it. You can count me in the Bengals believers camp. They are a fluke td away from a 3-0 start and have taken down the defending champs and the Packers in Lambeau.
Chad Ochocinco looks like the old Chad and Carson Palmer finally appears to be healthy. The biggest surprise on the offense so far has been Cedric Benson. The former Bears cast-off is salvaging his career in Cincinnati and looks like a legit NFL running back. While the offense looks good the defense also deserves a lot of credit. The unit that has plagued the Bengals for years is finally playing good defense. Antwan Odom is leading the charge with his league leading 7 sacks and Leon Hall is shutting down opposing teams best receiver.
The Bengals get the lowly Browns this week and I’m sure they will be licking their chops. The Browns have looked anemic on offense so far and are starting Derek, throws 3 picks in one half then be named the starter, Anderson at quarterback. This one won’t be close.
2. New York Giants (-8.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs
I went with the Giants as my suicide pick this week and I think they will cover as well. This team is hitting on all cylinders and I don’t think they can be stopped.
If Kevin Kolb torn the Chiefs, imagine what Eli Manning will do especially now that he has viable receivers in Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Combining that with the combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw the Chiefs are in big trouble. The Chiefs are going to have to figure out a way to move the ball against a Giant s defense that allowed 84 total yards to the Bucs last week. With Dwayne Bowe questionable it doesn’t look promising.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over the San Diego Chargers
The Steelers enter this week 1-2 and know they can’t afford to go 1-3. The Charger will do their best to make this happen but the Steelers will win this game.
Ben Roethlisberger has been in spots like this before and will come up big on Sunday Night. The Chargers have been poor against the run and are without nose tackle, Jamal Williams, which will allow the Steelers to be able to get their ground game going. It was better last week but can be better. The Steelers are home in this one and won’t lose back to back home games after blowing an 11 point lead at home against the Bengals last week.
Underdog Pick
1. Baltimore Ravens (+120) over the New England Patriots
This game is hard to call an upset since the line is only two but there simply isn’t any dog that I love this week. That being said I think the Ravens will come away with this game. The Ravens actually have the better offense in this matchup and are number 2 in the league behind only the Saints.
The Pats are also likely to be without at least two out of these: Wes Welker, Vince WIlfork, and Jerod Mayo. Without Wilfork in the middle the Ravens two headed monster will be able to run up the middle all day. Without Welker the Pats will be hard pressed to score on the Ravens defense. With all the talk about the Ravens offense now a days, people seem to forget that the Ravens still boast one of the best defenses in the league.
Final Score: Ravens 24 Patriots 21
Bet of the Week: Week 3
Last week wasn’t my best effort as I only got two out of my four picks right, but I did nail my upset pick for the second straight week. Let’s see if I can rebound in week 3.
Week 3
1. New England Patriots (-4) over the Atlanta Falcons
The Pats are very upset in their performance last week against the Jets and will be out for a vengeance this week. This match up features arguably the best quarterback in the game, Tom Brady, to the next big thing in Matt Ryan.
Brady struggled last week but the Falcons defense is no where close to the Jets D. They won’t be able to apply the same amount of pressure and Brady will be able to sit back in the pocket and make throws. The return of Wes Welker should also benefit the Pats as he was sorely missed as Brady’s safety valve last week.
2. Chicago Bears (-2) over the Seattle Seahawks
The Bears were very impressive last week defeating the world champ Steelers holding them to only 14 points. Jay Cutler also proved why Chicago traded for him and delivered a great game.
The Seahawks look like they will be playing without Matt Hasslebeck this week and instead will start Seneca Wallace. The Bears defense will harass Wallace all game long and force him to make some mistakes. I see Matt Forte breaking out of his mini slump and having a big day as the Bears beat the Seahawks.
3. New York Giants (-6.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These are two teams going in complete opposite directions. The Bucs have looked awful in their first two games while the Giants looks like the class of the NFC.
The Bucs secondary has been ripped to shreds the first two weeks and in come Eli Manning and he red hot Giants passing game. The emergence of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith has been a pleasant surprise for the G-Men and have made them forgot about Plaxico Burress. Also I expect Brandon Jacobs to have a big game running all over the the smallish Bucs defense. I think the Giants win this game big.
Underdog Pick
1. Detroit Lions (+190) over the Washington Redskins
I know I can’t believe I’m picking the Lions, but I got a feeling this is the week. The Redskins looked bad last week as they couldn’t even muster a touchdown to the lowly Rams. They had four trips inside the 10 yard line but could only manage three field goals and after the win were met with boos from the home crowd.
It may be only two games into the season but Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell are feeling the heat. The Lions meanwhile, have lost both games, but have been competitive in both and had the lead at halftime against the Vikings. If Stafford can improve his accuracy and hit Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith gives them some balance in the running game the Lions can pull this one out ending a 19 game losing streak. Just saw on ESPN Herman Edwards picking the Lions, might want to rethink this pick.
Final Score Lions 23 Redskins 20
