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2011 NFL Week 3: Picks Against the Spread

NFL Week 3 is almost here so that means its time for our NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread.

Through just two weeks of the season, we already have seen a lot play out. Let’s look back to just a few weeks ago.

Remember when before the season started, everyone was saying to expect offenses to be sloppy throughout September because they didn’t have enough offseason practice together because of the NFL Lockout. Yeah, about that. Maybe it was a typo and they meant defenses? I don’t think so. Through two weeks there has been, 172 total TDs, 1,502 points, and 15,771 net passing yards.  All of those numbers are the most through 2 weeks of any season in NFL history.

It just goes to prove the NFL Lockout had absolutely no effect on the product were seeing. Rookies were supposed to suffer because they didn’t have OTAs and minicamps. Yet Cam Newton has the second most passing yards in history through two weeks and Andy Dalton is slinging it in Cincinnati. Teams with new coaching staffs were supposed to be a mess. Though only one team with a new coach (out of 6) is 0-2 (Ron Rivera; Carolina).

Week 2 Recap: I had an average week going 7-8-1 against the spread. That puts me at an even 15-15-2 through two weeks. I would have had the same odds if I flipped a coin!

Home teams are in CAPS. Feel free to mock my picks the comments or challenge me by posting your own picks. The lines are courtesy of Betus.com

Note: This website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1.5) over the San Francisco 49ers

It’s been a rough year for gingers. First, an NFL coach questioned whether redheads could play quarterback and now the world’s largest sperm bank is denying redheads. Back to that first item. Andy Dalton is proving the naysayers wrong. Lost in the hype about Cam Newton, Dalton’s strong play is going largely unnoticed. He will get his due after the Bengals take down the 49ers, who are coming off an emotional loss and now have to travel to the east coast for a 1 p.m. start.

New England Patriots (-7) over the BUFFALO BILLS

I feel bad for Bills fans. There is finally something to cheer about, only it’s just a matter of time before the team moves to Canada.

Houston Texans (+4.5) over the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

No one is talking about the work Wade Phillips has done with this Texans pass dense. Last year they dead last in the league in were one of the 10 worst pass defenses of all-time. Through two games they are first in the league in yards against and second in yards per attempt. That’s an amazing turnaround. It’s even more impressive considering the fact that there has been a record amount of passing yards, points scored, and total touchdowns through two weeks.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5) over the New York Giants

I’ll update this pick when we know if Vick will play.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1.5) over the Miami Dolphins

I feel sorry for anyone that has to watch this game.

Denver Broncos (+7) over the TENNESSEE TITANS

The Titans are a great example of why the NFL is a week-to-week league. In Week 1 they lost to the Jaguars, who have now benched their quarterback, and then went out in Week 2 and dominated the Ravens, who looked like a Super Bowl favorite. Now, they’re 6.5 favorites against a team that they should be 3 point favorites against. Take the points.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4.5) over the Detroit Lions

The Lions have come a long way. They are now favored on the road against the division rival Vikings. It’s been a long time. 30 years long. Muhammad Ali was still fighting the last time the Lions were favored on the road in Minnesota. I’m drinking the Lions kool-aid, but not this week. I have to believe the Minnesota Adrian Peterson’s can cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over the CAROLINA PANTHERS

Cam Newton is getting all the press right now, but what about their running game. Mainly, the guy they broke the bank for in the offseason when they handed DeAngelo Williams a five-year $43 million contract. How’s he doing so far? He has 43 yards though 2 games. 1 yard per every $1 million they spent on him. Good investment Carolina.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-14) over the Kansas City Chiefs

They couldn’t make this line high enough. If the Chiefs could only score 10 points in their first two games combined, how many will they score against the Chargers without Jamaal Charles? Fast forward a few months and Todd Haley will be unemployed and the Chiefs will be debating whether they should draft Andrew Luck or not.

New York Jets (-3) over the OAKLAND RAIDERS

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) over the ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams are in serious trouble. If they lose game they fall to 0-3. Then their next four games are against the Packers, Cowboys, Saints, Redskins. They could be staring at 0-7 as they head to Arizona. The best part is though, they would still be in the division race. We thought the NFC West would get a little better this year, but it hasn’t. Looks like it’s first to seven, maybe eight wins again.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (PK) over the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons made a big splash during the draft trading up to draft Julio Jones. So far the move hasn’t worked out. I don’t know if Matt Ryan is trying to get the rookie’s confidence going or if the front office is telling him to throw it to Julio, but it’s like he forgot he had Roddy White. Through two games, Jones only has 4 less targets than White. This is a rookie and a guy who caught 115 passes last season! If the Falcons want to win, they need to pass the ball to Roddy.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over the Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks have looked like one of the worst, if not the worst, teams so far this season. However, they haven’t played at Qwest Field yet. They are a different team at home, just watch last year’s playoff game to refresh your memory. Gotta love the home dog. On another note, this will show you how bad things are for the Seahawks.  In the 2009 NFL Draft, the Seahawks selected Aaron Curry. The guy was considered to be the safest pick of the draft and when the Seahawks got him at #4 many experts considered it the best pick of the draft. Two years later and he’s lost his starting job to a fourth round rookie.

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) over the CHICAGO BEARS

Right now the Bears look like a team that could go either way. Their defense could return to its dominating way, Devin Hester could be a lethal weapon on special teams, and Jay Cutler protects the football propelling the team to a 10-6 record, earning a wild-card berth. Or it could go the other way. The offensive line implodes, Jay Cutler becomes a rag doll, the defense shows its age and the Bears limp to a 6-10 finish. I can see either happening, but right now, I’d bet on 6-10.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5) over the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

NBC has to be pissed that this is their Sunday night game. I’m sure they didn’t envision the home team being an 11.5 point underdog when they decided on this game. While Peyton Manning’s injury can be to blame, some of the blame also falls on the Indianapolis Colts. They had to have known that Manning’s injury was way more serious than anyone was letting one, yet they covered the whole thing up. They had everyone going up until right before Week 1, then they drop a bombshell. They really should have been more up front about it, mainly so next time I don’t blow a fifth round pick on Manning in my fantasy draft.

Washington Redskins (+5) over the DALLAS COWBOYS

I’ll update this pick when we know Tony Romo’s status.

Last Week: 7-8-1

Year-to-Date: 15-15-2

Suicide Pool Pick of the Week:

Pittsburgh Steelers over the Indianapolis Colts

Teams Used: San Diego Chargers, New York Jets

2011 NFL Week 2: Picks Against the Spread

Week 2 is right around the corner and that means it’s time for our NFL Week 2 picks against the spread.

Week 2 is always one of the toughest weeks to bet, even tougher than Week 1. Before last week, no one really knew anything and went mostly on educated guesses. Now we have seen every team play once and think we know a little about each team. That’s the dangerous part. We think we know how good/bad teams are and bet accordingly, but it was only one game. With the shortened offseason, maybe some teams weren’t ready for the regular season and some players weren’t in top game shape. Now, they have had a week to get back into the routine.

Right now everyone thinks the Indianapolis Colts suck and the Washington Redskins might find a way to sneak into the playoffs. Don’t overreact people, it was just one game. One tip I like to use is to look at the spread and guess what the spread would have been if these teams played in Week 1.

Don’t ignore how a team played in Week 1, but remember it was just one game.

We got off to a decent start going 8-7-1 against the spread last week. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.

Home teams are in CAPS. Feel free to mock my picks the comments or challenge me by posting your own picks. The lines are courtesy of Betus.com

Note: This website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) over the Chicago Bears

The Saints are a different team when they play at home. The line is a little high than I would like, but I’m getting the feeling the Saints offense is just going to go off and no way the Bears offense can keep up with them.

Kansas City Chiefs (+7.5) over the DETROIT LIONS

This game is the prime example of what I was talking about in the opening. If these teams played in Week 1, no way would the line have been this high. It probably would have been 3 points max.The Lions haven’t been favored by this many points since the year 2000! I’m not high on the Chiefs this year, but I don’t think they’re as bad as they looked last week. Jamaal Charles has to do something here, right?

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) over the NEW YORK JETS

The Jets just don’t blow teams out. It doesn’t help that they haven’t scored a touchdown in the first quarter in the past 16 games. The Jets will win, it will just be closer than you think.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over the Oakland Raiders

One of these teams will be 2-0 come Sunday night. I’ll take the home team, especially when the Raiders are traveling cross country for a 1:00 p.m. start.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over the WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Rex Grossman bandwagon has no more room, so I hope you jumped on while you had the chance. Seriously, does everybody remember this is the same Rex Grossman that was torn a new one by the media every week while he was in Chicago? When Rex Grossman is giving points, I’m betting the other team every time even if it’s a high school team.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) over the TENNESSEE TITANS

This looks like the classic letdown game for the Ravens after they destroyed the Steelers last week. But even if they have a letdown, they should still be able to cover the spread.

Seattle Seahawks (+14.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS

I would have given anything to be in the Steelers lockerroom postgame, after they got embarrassed by the arch-rival Ravens. Did James Harrison stick needles at his Roger Goodell voodoo doll? Did Ben Roethlisberger rape somebody? Was Mike Tomlin even coaching or did he get Omar Epps to fill for him? Seriously though, I’ve been way down on the Steelers from the start and think they will struggle, yet win.

Green Bay Packers (-11.5) over the CAROLINA PANTHERS

Cam Newton dazzled in his NFL debut, but that was the worst thing possible for him. Now the bar is raised for Cam. Fair or not, every game from here on out will be measured against his debut, which will be next to impossible to top. If Cam threw for 175 yards and one touchdown, it could have been considered a success. Now those numbers won’t cut it. The Super Bowl Champs will put Cam and the Panthers in their place.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Did Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman switch bodies and not tell anyone? McNabb looked like a shell of him self last week, but he can’t possibly ply that bad again, can he?  The Bucs were pretty bad themselves, scoring 14 of their 20 points on a INT return and a garbage time score. I’m liking the Minnesota Adrian Petersons in this one.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) over the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

I’m sorry for anyone that actually has to watch this game on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys (-4) over the San Francisco 49ers

Tony Romo choked down the stretch against the Jets, causing everyone to question whether or not he will ever will the big one? Hold it there, as the stats show Romo is just as clutch as Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. It just so happens, every time Romo chokes he is on national TV.

Houston Texans (-3.5) over the Miami Dolphins

So after worrying all offseason, how did Mario Williams handle the transition to OLB? Not too bad considering he led all players with 11 hurries (8 pressures, 1 hit, 2 sacks).

San Diego Chargers (+6.5) over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

If you didn’t hear the NFL Network aired part one of Bill Belichick: A Football Life night. If you read about today, you might think it was the greatest thing ever (here, here and here). Now, I’m not going to trash it, but it wansn’t jizz in your pants good like some people claim. If you re expecting to see another side of Belichick, don’t get excited. He is just as boring as he seems in the media. There was one great moment though.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the DENVER BRONCOS

After watching Monday night’s game, can we all finally agree that Kyle Orton isn’t a good quarterback. That’s why the Dolphins didn’t trade for him and that’s why no other team with a need at QB even attempted to. It’s no surprise every he is constantly on the trading block. He’s not any good!

ATLANTA FALCONS (+2.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles

I can’t wait for this game just to see how many Falcons fans rock Michael Vick Falcons jerseys. As for the game itself, the Falcons will be pumped up for this game and it’s always hard to pass up on a home dog.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6) over the St. Louis Rams

Why is this game on Monday Night Football? How did the suits at ESPN mess this up. It’s only Week 2! We need to have flex scheduling for the entire season.

Last Week: 8-7-1

Year-to-Date: 8-7-1

Suicide Pool Pick of the Week:

New York Jets over the Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 NFL Week 1: Picks Against the Spread

The 2011 NFL Season kicks off this weekend with a great slate of games for Week 1. Picking the games against the spread is always a challenge, especially in Week 1 when we have no idea how good each team will be.

This year is even more of a challenge because of the NFL Lockout that wiped out nearly all of the offseason. Teams that have new coaches and/or quarterbacks (Tennessee Titans), significantly overhauled their roster (Seattle Seahawks), or are relying on too much on 2011 NFL Draft picks (Atlanta Falcons) could be at a significant disadvantage.

However, they could just as easily adjust fast and it would be as if the NFL Lockout never happened. The NFL usually surprises us in a few every year, but we should be in for more surprises than usual for the 2011 NFL Season.

Now let me stop blabbering and get on to my picks against the spread, the reason you all are here. Home teams are in CAPS. Feel free to mock my picks the comments or challenge me by posting your own picks.

Note: This website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1.5) over the Pittsburgh Steelers

CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over the Atlanta Falcons

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-7) over the Cincinnati Bengals

Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) over the HOUSTON TEXANS

Tennessee Titans (+3) over the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Buffalo Bills (+7) over the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) over the ST. LOUIS RAMS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1) over the Detroit Lions

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7) over the Carolina Panthers

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9) over the Minnesota Vikings

Seattle Seahawks (+6) over the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

New York Giants (-3) over the WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Dallas Cowboys (+5) over the NEW YORK JETS

New England Patriots (-7) over the MIAMI DOLPHINS

DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over the Oakland Raiders

This Week: 1-0

Year-to-Date: 1-0

Suicide Pool Pick of the Week:

San Diego Chargers over the Minnesota Vikings

Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Wow! Last week was miserable (5-9)! If you want to win your office pool or bust your bookie, probably go with the opposite of whatever I publish here this week. No excuses here, I sucked last week. Hopefully this week will be better. And here, we…GO!

DENVER (+7) at Baltimore…The Ravens defense was impressive last week, but their offense only woke up in the last 45 seconds of the game. You have to score a lot of points to cover that kind of number against Denver. Plus, the Broncos really showed me something last week going out and getting a win at Tennessee.

BUFFALO (+1) vs. Jacksonville…The Bills really looked miserable last week and the Jaguars beat the Colts. I don’t know why I’m doing this. What’s wrong with me? I guess this is my “hunch” of the week.

INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) vs. Kansas City…Are the Chiefs for real? We’re going to find our realllll quick on Sunday. I say no, and the Colts trounce them.

DETROIT (-3) vs. St. Louis…The Lions hung with the Packers last week at Lambeau, pretty impressive. The Rams beat what I’ve decided is the worst offensive team in the league last week, not as impressive. I’ll take the home team.

ATLANTA (-3) at Cleveland…Can the Browns cover back-to-back games against two (supposedly) good teams? I don’t think so. The dirty birds seemed to pick up steam at the end of last week while the Browns were running out of it. I think that will carry over.

TAMPA BAY (+6.5) at Cincinnati…I think the Bucs are overrated, but I think the Bengals are more overrated. I think Tampa steals a road win before it gets too chilly in Cinci. (Side note: How about TO last weekend? Found the fountain of youth, huh?!)

CHICAGO (-2.5) at Carolina…Nobody looked as good as those Carolina Panthers did last week. I think they’ll look pretty damn good losing this week, too.

GREEN BAY (-2.5) at Washington…I get it, it was an emotional win for Donovan McNabb last week and the team looked really unified in the locker room after. You can dress up a pig all you want, but a pig is still gonna be a pig (even if it’s a unified pig). I, for one, still think the Redskins are a bad team, even at 2-2 and atop the NFC East.

HOUSTON (-3) vs. New York…I’m gonna make this reallllll simple for you, Texans: STOP THE PASS RUSH! The Giants aren’t much of a team without it.

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) at Arizona…You suck, Cardinals. You embarrassed me last week. You’re gonna have to show me something if you ever want me to pick you again.

SAN DIEGO (-6) at Oakland…Chargers woke up last week and pounded the Cards. The Raiders are still hibernating.

TENNESSEE (+6.5) at Dallas…Tennessee is still a good team, despite last week’s slip-up. Jury is still out on Romo & co.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) vs. Philadelphia…Unless Kevin Kolb left his heart there and finds it between now and game day, he’s going to continue to play uninspired football in San Francisco. Eagles are are tortured (too soon?) without their top dog (too soon?).

MINNESOTA (+4) at New York…I don’t think Moss will be much of a help this week, but I think the Vikes will run the ball better in Favre’s return to the Meadowlands.

Good luck this week, everyone!

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

I had my worst week of the season last week, but I still finished over .500 going 9-7 against the spread. Let’s see if I can improve on my total from last week. The lines are courtesy of Americasline.com.

Buffalo Bills (+6) over the New York Jets

Cleveland Browns (+3) over the Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) over the Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos (+6.5) over the Tennessee Titans

Green Bay Packers (-14.5) over the Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ers (+7) over the Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers (+14) over the New Orleans Saints

St. Louis Rams (+1.5) over the Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) over the Indianapolis Colts

Oakland Raiders (+3) over the Houston Texans

Washington Redskins (+5.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles

San Diego Chargers (-8) over the Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants (-3.5) over the Chicago Bears

Miami Dolphins (+1) over the New England Patriots

Last Week: 9-7

Year to Date: 26-16-4

Suicide Pick of the Week: Green Bay Packers over the Detroit Lions

Season Record: 3-0

Teams Used: Tennessee Titans, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens

NFL Week 3 Picks Agaainst the Spread

I continued my hot start to the season last week, going 9-6-1 against the spread last week. Let’s see if I can keep up my hot streak in Week 3. The lines are courtesy of Bodog.

Atlanta Falcons (+4) over the New Orleans Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over the Carolina Panthers

San Francisco 49ers (-3) over the Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo Bills (+14.5) over the New England Patriots

New York Giants (-3) over the Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens (-11) over the Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over the Houston Texans

Detroit Lions (+11.5) over the Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins (-4.5) over the St. Louis Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over the Jacksonville Jaguars 

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) over the Arizona Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (-6) over the Denver Broncos

San Diego Chargers (-5) over the Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets (+2.5) over the Miami Dolphins

Green Bay Packers (-3) over the Chicago Bears

Last Week: 9-6-1

Year to Date: 19-10-3

Suicide Pick of the Week: Baltimore Ravens over the Cleveland Browns

Season Record: 2-0

Teams Used: Tennessee Titans, San Diego Chargers

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

The first week of the season has come and gone and now it’s time for Week 2. I got off to a great start going 10-4-2 against the spread last wee and also nailing my sucide pick. Let’s see if I can keep my hot streak going in Week 2. The spreads are courtesy of Bodog.

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) over the Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers (-14) over the Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) over the Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over the Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns (-3) over the Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over the Detroit Lions

Miami Dolphins (+6) over the Minnesota Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (+7) over the Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens (-3) over the Cincinnati Bengals

Oakland Raiders (-3.5) over the St. Louis Rams

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over the Seattle Seahawks

San Diego Chargers (-7) over the Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets (+3) over the New England Patriots

Washington Redskins (+3) over the Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts (-6) over the New York Giants

San Francisco 49ers (+6) over the New Orleans Saints

Season Record: 10-4-2

Suicide Pick of the Week:

San Diego Chargers over the Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Week 8: Bet of the Week

A decent week for me last week as I split, going 2 for 2.  I nailed the Steelers and Packers but lost on the Falcons and Dolphins.

My Dolphins pick was looking great for three quarters then the Saints had to comeback spoling my upset special.  Anyway here’s what I’m liking this week:

Against the Spread:

1. Chicago Bears (-13) over the Cleveland Browns

After starting 3-1 the Bears have dropped two straight and now sit at .500.   They got embarrassed by the Bengals last week but who better than to take out their rage than the Browns.

If ever there was a game for Matt Forte to break out it’s on Sunday. This week the Bears did replace left guard, Frank Omiyale, with Josh Beekman who started every game last season.  Cleveland’s run defense ranks 31st in the league and last week Ryan Grant got his season rolling against the Browns with his first 147 yard effort, his first time over the century mark this year.  I expect Matt Forte to do the same as the Bears roll.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over the Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars started October with a rout of the Titans and now they will start November with a chance to do the same.

In the last meeting David Garrard carved up the Titans secondary and Mike Sims-Walker emerged as his favorite target.  The Titans secondary has been ever worse since and is now ranked dead last in the league.  They had a bye last week but the week before were shredded by Tom Brady and I’m sure David Garrard will be licking his chops.

This game also marks Vince Young’s first start of the season.  I’ve been in favor of starting Vince Young for awhile now, but I’m not saying he’s going to solve all of their problems.  I was just saying they need to see what they have in him.  Now Vince does have a favorable matchup but until he shows his 2006 form there’s no way I’m betting on him.

3. New York Giants (PK) over the Philadelphia Eagles

The battle for NFC East supremacy takes place in Philly this weekend.  The Giants come in losers of two in a row whil the Eagles rebounded against the ‘Skins after losing in Oakland.

This game is a must win for the Giants.  They can’t afford to lose their third in a row and I don’t think they will.  The Eagles o-line gave up 6 sacks to the Raiders two weeks ago and even let the Redskins get three against them.  The Giants boast one of the best pass rushes in the game and Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and co. should be in for a big day on Sunday.

The Eagles with also be without All Pro running back Brian Westbrook, due to a concussion.  While LeSean McCoy is a very capable backup, he is no Brin Westbrook.  Westbrook does it all for this offense and his presence will be greatly missed on the field.  On the Giants side Brandon Jacobs is finally starting to get it going averaging 5.5 yards per carry the last two weeks.  This game will be a nail biter but I like the Giants to come out on top.

Upset Special

1. Minnesota Vikings (+160) over the Green Bay Packers

The media’s favorite game of the year.  Brett Favre makes his long awaited return to Lambeau Field, the place where he called home for 16 years.

Enough about the pe-game hype.  Let’s get to the actual game on the field.

The Packers didn’t allow a sack for the first time all season last week but they did play the Browns.  Don’t think their o-line worries are suddenly gone.  Jared Allen racked up 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble last time these teams played and while I wouldn’t expect a repeat, multiple sacks is a definite possibility.  If Aaron Rodgers on his back all game the Packers won’t win.

The Vikings secondary did an admirable job without Antoine Winfield against Big Ben and should continue their strong play this week.  Adrian Peterson didn’t have his best game last time against the Packers, so I’m sure he’ll play with some extra motivation this week.

But of course the man with all the motivation is Brett Favre.  Favre still hasn’t had a game where he turns it over a lot and I don’t see it happening this week.  His two turnovers last week weren’t his fault (Steve Hutchinson, Chester Taylor) and he isn’t pushing the ball down field like he usually does.  He will occasionally take his chances but only in favorable situations.  The emergence of third year man Sidney Rice has been huge for the Vikings and I see him having another nice game.

This game will close in the fourth quarter but I see the Vikings pulling it out.

NFL Week 7: Bet of the Week

Last week wasn’t my best as I only went 2 for 4 with my picks but I did get my upset special, the Chiefs, right agin improving my record to 5-1 on the season.  Let’s see if i an get back on track this week:

Against the Spread

1. Atlanta (+4) over the Dallas Cowboys

The Falcons are as hot as any team in the league right now.  They are coming off a blowout win at San Francisco and a good win over the Bears. Their offense is clicking right now, especially the passing game.

The Cowboys are coming off a bye but I don’t their coaching can take advantage.  Plus they are also barely beat the Chiefs the last time they played.  The Falcons defense won’t miss those tackles that the Chiefs missed on Miles Austin.

This game has the makings of a shootout and will likely come down h the wire.  In the end I see the Falcons offense proving too powerful for the Cowboys to handle.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over the Minnesota Vikings

The game of the week pits the undefeated Vikings against the defending Super Bowl Champs.

The Steelers have ripped off three straight wins after starting out 1-2.  They finally have a dependable backfield in Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker.  Also Ben Roethlisberger is playing the best football of his career.

The Vikings are 6-0, but have had more than their fair share of good fortune and are due for a letdown.  Without top cornerback, Antoine Winfield, I expect Ben Roethlisberger to have a field day against a secondary that was lit up for over 350 yards by Joe Flacco last week.

This game will also the first outdoor game for Brett since week one, where he struggled.  I see the Steelers winning this one by a touchdown.

3. Green Bay Packers (-9) over the Cleveland Browns

The Packers looked very good last week, even it was against the Lions.  Any time you shut out a divisional opponent it is impressive.

The Browns on the other hand, still have not scored over 20 points this season.  Derek Anderson has shown nothing and while it’s not all his fault he simply is not playing good.  Also many Browns have come down with the flu and they will be without a few players this Sunday.  They also lost middle linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson, the league leader in tackles last season, for the year.

The Packers should finally be able to get Greg Jennings going this week.  The Browns only have one player that has more than one sack, which should allow Aaron Rodgers time to find Jennings deep a few times.

Upset Special

1. Miami Dolphins (+235) over the New Orleans Saints

This may seem crazy when you first look at it but after breaking it down it makes sense.

The Saints aren’t going to win every game and are due for a let down.

The Dolphins meanwhile, are coming off a bye and have had a extra week to prepare for the Saints high octane attack and they also had another week to add more playes and gimmicks to the Wildcat.  The Saints have not seen the Wildcat before and could struggle to stop it.

The Dolphins are on a two game winning streak and if they beat the Saints they will get back to .500.  If the Wildcat can keep the Saints offense off the field and the Dolphins will be able to control the clock.  They did this against to perfection against the Colts but lost the game becasue they couldn’t come back in the final minutes.  But now instead of Chad “noodle arm” Pennington at quarterback they have Chad Henne, who has looked great in his first two career starts.  It also doesn’t hurt that the Dolphins are playing at home.

NFL Bet of the Week: Week 6

I was 4 for 4 with about 10 seconds left in the Monday Night game.  Then Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins crushed my bid to go a perfect 4-0, but I’ll settle for 3-1.  Let’s see if I can make up for it this week.

Against the Spread

1. Houston Texans (+5.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals

The Texans have been as inconsistent as you can get this season.  One week they look like the playoff sleeper many expert pegged them as and the next week they look like a team in disarray.

Though, they have improved their dreadful run defense the past two weeks holding their opponents to 89 yards combined.  They do face a tough test this week in league leader Cedric Benson (never thought I’d ever say that).

The Bengals are flying high right now but this game just screams let down to me.  They have gotten extremely lucky winning their last three games all by 3 points and all in the closing seconds.  That luck comes to an end this week.

2. New York Giants (+3) over the New Orleans Saints

This game is a battle for NFC supremacy and could decide home field advantage in the playoffs.

Drew Brees has been rather quiet the past two weeks after getting off to a scorching start the first two weeks of the season.  The Giants have been great against the pass this season and I think they can keep Brees in check for another week.

The Saints have been living off takeaways this season leading the league despite only playing four games.  Eli Manning will be the toughest quarterback they have faced though and has only turned the ball over twice this season.  He’s not going to give them 14 points like Mark Sanchez did with his mistakes a couple of weeks ago.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (-14) over the Oakland Raiders

This game has mis match written all over as evidenced by the 14 point spread and it should probably be even more.

The Raiders can’t do anything offensively, whether it through the air or on the ground.  After last week’s embarrassment against the Giants, linebacker Antonio pierce said the game felt like a scrimmage.  Talk about a slap in the face.

The Raiders a playing like a JV team right now and until they prove otherwise you have to bet against them.

The Eagles have a surplus of weapons that can exploit the Raiders defensively.  They crushed the Bucs last week and their leading receiver, DeSean Jackson, had only one catch.  This game will be over in a hurry.

2009 Record: 10-5

Upset Special

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+190) over the Washington Redskins

I like a lot of underdogs this week but I don’t really consider the Giants over the Saints or the Ravens over the Vikings an upset.

That being said I really like the Chiefs chances this week.  They were so close against the Cowboys last week and probably should have won that game.

Don’t be fooled by the ‘Skins’s 2-3 record.  They have played a win less team every week this season.

The Cowboys broke a lot of big play last week but the Redskins don’t the offensive weapons the Cowboys do.  I can’t remember the last time Clinton Portis broke a 40 yard run.  Just looked it up and you have to go all the way back to 2005.  Ouch.

The Redskins only offensive weapon, Santana Moss, will not be able to go deep as much this game due to the ‘Skins’s o-line woes.  They are missing left tackle Chris Samuels and are starting two backup on the right side.  That will limit the ‘Skins to more three step drops and quick throws.

Everyone is calling for Jim Zorn’s head right now and its starting to distract the players.  They went to Daniel Synder and asked him to give Zorn a vote of confidence the other day but as of now he has made no such comment.  He wants to fire Zorn and a loss against the Chiefs will likely be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

2009 Record: 4-1